The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America
The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America
复制标题
大宗商品价格对拉丁美洲财政绩效的动态影响
DOI：
10.5089/9781455202263.001.a001
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Leandro Medina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Leandro Medina
近期大宗商品价格的涨跌引发了人们对大宗商品价格波动对拉美国家财政状况影响的担忧。本文利用新颖的季度数据集（其中包括独特的特定国家商品价格指数和公共支出综合衡量指标）分析了商品价格波动对八个拉丁美洲商品出口国财政收入和支出的动态影响。结果表明，拉美国家的财政状况对大宗商品价格的冲击反应强烈，但各国之间存在显着差异。委内瑞拉的财政变量对大宗商品价格冲击的敏感性最高，支出的反应明显大于收入。另一方面，智利的支出对大宗商品价格波动的反应很小，其财政指标的动态反应与高收入大宗商品出口国的动态反应非常相似。各国之间的这种独特行为可能与制度安排有关，在某些情况下，这包括在政治承诺和高透明度标准的情况下有效运用财政规则。
The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.