Peak Runoff Timing Is Linked to Global Warming Trajectories
Peak Runoff Timing Is Linked to Global Warming Trajectories
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DOI：
10.1029/2021ef002083
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发表时间：
2021-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Donghui Xu;V. Ivanov;Xiuyuan Li;T. Troy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Donghui Xu;V. Ivanov;Xiuyuan Li;T. Troy
地球的水文气候正在持续变化，需要了解对水资源时空分布的相应影响，以减轻其社会经济后果。各种生态系统服务，运输过程和人类活动与年径流量峰值的时间同步。为了了解水文气候变化对美国大陆径流高峰日期的影响，我们对10个全球环流模型在不同未来情景下的输出进行了缩减。我们的研究结果量化了本世纪末年径流峰值发生日期的负（最多3-5周）和正（最多2-4周）变化的稳健空间模式。在融雪为主的地区，由于积雪时间的相应变化，预计年度最大值将提前。对于发生春季极端土壤湿度转移到较晚的时间，我们发现，年径流量峰值预计也将推迟。这些模式的径流时间变化往往是更明显的预测更高的温室气体浓度在未来。
The earth's hydroclimate is continuing to change, and the corresponding impacts on water resource space‐time distribution need to be understood to mitigate their socioeconomic consequences. A variety of ecosystem services, transport processes, and human activities are synced with the timing of peak annual runoff. To understand the influence of changing hydroclimate on peak runoff dates across the continental United States, we downscaled outputs of 10 Global Circulation Models for different future scenarios. Our results quantify robust spatial patterns of both negative (up to 3–5 weeks) and positive (up to 2–4 weeks) shifts in the dates of peak annual runoff occurrence by the end of this century. In snowmelt‐dominated areas, annual maxima are projected to shift to earlier dates due to the corresponding changes in snow accumulation timing. For regions in which the occurrence of springtime extreme soil wetness shifts to later time, we find that peak annual runoff is also projected to be delayed. These patterns of runoff timing change tend to be more pronounced for projections of higher greenhouse concentration in the future.