Non-linear time series analysis of precipitation events using regional climate networks for Germany
Non-linear time series analysis of precipitation events using regional climate networks for Germany
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2632-z
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发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
A. Rheinwalt;N. Boers;N. Marwan;J. Kurths;P. Hoffmann;F. Gerstengarbe;P. Werner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Rheinwalt;N. Boers;N. Marwan;J. Kurths;P. Hoffmann;F. Gerstengarbe;P. Werner
强降雨事件的同步发生及其在时间和空间上的关系的研究具有很大的社会经济意义，例如对于农业和保险部门，而且对于人口的总体福祉。在这项研究中，空间同步结构分析作为一个区域气候网络构建的降水事件序列。事件序列之间的相似性由同步发生的次数决定。 我们提出了一种新的标准化这个数字的结果insynchronization scoreswhich是不偏的事件在各自的时间序列的数量。此外，我们还引入了一个新版本的网络measuredirectionality，它通过考虑网络空间嵌入的影响来测量加权链接的空间方向性。这种测量方法通过指出降雨事件同步的沿着方向来提供强降水等时线的估计。我们提出了一个气候学的解释，这一措施的传播方面orevent tracesand确认德国通过比较我们的结果，已知的大气环流模式。
Synchronous occurrences of heavy rainfall events and the study of their relation in time and space are of large socio-economical relevance, for instance for the agricultural and insurance sectors, but also for the general well-being of the population. In this study, the spatial synchronization structure is analyzed as a regional climate network constructed from precipitation event series. The similarity between event series is determined by the number of synchronous occurrences. We propose a novel standardization of this number that results insynchronization scoreswhich are not biased by the number of events in the respective time series. Additionally, we introduce a new version of the network measuredirectionalitythat measures the spatialdirectionalityof weighted links by also taking account of the effects of the spatial embedding of the network. This measure provides an estimate of heavy precipitationisochronesby pointing out directions along which rainfall events synchronize. We propose a climatological interpretation of this measure in terms of propagating fronts orevent tracesand confirm it for Germany by comparing our results to known atmospheric circulation patterns.