Family changes and public transport use 1984–1987
Family changes and public transport use 1984–1987
复制标题
1984-1987 年家庭变化和公共交通使用
DOI：
10.1007/bf00163112
复制
发表时间：
1989
期刊：
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Phil Goodwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Phil Goodwin
AbstractPanel数据用于调查当人们在生命周期、就业状况、收入或汽车拥有量方面发生一些重要转变或变化时会发生什么。只有三年的数据，而且过渡的速度很慢：因此，相关的样本规模相当小。分析分两个阶段进行：给出两年的结果，然后用第三年的数据来验证假设。结果发现，在许多情况下，对流动性的影响与横截面数据的预期不同。特别是：-汽车所有权的变化大大低于预期;-当人们成为特定的依赖或“俘虏”群体的成员时，公共交通并没有像预期的那样受益。
这些结果表明，收入增长对汽车拥有量的影响以及因此对公共交通的影响可能并不像人们担心的那样剧烈。但另一方面，公共交通要获得一个垄断的基础市场可能比预期的要困难。这两个结果都表明，政策和营销策略可能是决定性的。公共交通市场在两个星期内，两年内由大约相等比例的忠诚，失去了，和新的人。忠诚的乘客有轻微的倾向是那些在他们的家庭中没有重大转变的人，但是从那些有过这种转变的人那里吸引新的乘客更容易。第三年的数据给出了一些迹象（但不是决定性的证据），从长远来看，横截面关系可能会有一些收敛。总的来说，它开始看起来好像动态或延迟效应继续运作的一段时间内，公共交通的使用，并超过10年的汽车拥有量。
AbstractPanel data are used to investigate what happens when people have some important transitions or changes in their life-cycle, employment status, income, or car ownership. Only three years data are available, and the pace of transition is slow: as a result relevant sample sizes are rather small. The analysis is carried out in two stages: results are given from a two year period, and these are used to generate hypotheses checked with data from the third year.It is found that in many cases the effects on mobility are different from what would be expected from cross-section data. In particular:- car ownership changes are substantially less than expected;- public transport does not benefit as much as expected when people become members specific dependent or “captive” groups.
These results indicate that the effects of income growth on car ownership and therefore on public transport may not be as drastic as feared. But on the other hand it may be more difficult for public transport to secure a captive base market than hoped. Both results suggest that policy and marketing strategies may be decisive.The public transport market in two weeks over two years consist of approximately equal proportions of loyal, lost, and new people. There is a slight tendency for the loyal passengers to be those who have not had major transitions in their families, but it is easier to attract new passengers from those who have had such transitions.Data from the third year gives some indication (but not conclusive proof) that in the longer run there may be some convergence to the cross section relationships. Overall, it begins to look as though dynamic or delayed effects continue to operate over a period of five years or so for public transport use, and over ten years for car ownership.