North Sea storm surge statistics based on projections in a warmer climate: How important are the driving GCM and the chosen emission scenario?
North Sea storm surge statistics based on projections in a warmer climate: How important are the driving GCM and the chosen emission scenario?
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基于气候变暖预测的北海风暴潮统计数据：驱动 GCM 和所选排放情景有多重要？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Woth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Woth
气候模型模拟了未来合理排放浓度（情景）的影响，描述了未来冬季西北欧上空高风速的增加。北海的水动力模型的帮助下，这些大气的未来条件被用来项目风暴潮高度为西北欧陆架海。四个不同的预测，都产生了相同的区域气候模式，这本身是由两个不同的全球气候模式的情景都暴露于两个不同的排放情景驱动。这些分析是在21世纪末的30年时间段内进行的。所有四个集合成员都指出，北海大陆海岸的风暴潮高度显著增加，在15到近25厘米之间。然而，不同的风暴潮预测在统计上是无法区分的，但可以提供一系列可能的极端风暴潮在温暖的气候演变。
Climate models, simulating the effect of plausible future emission concentrations (scenarios), describe for the future an increase of high wind speeds over Northwest Europe during winter. With the help of a hydrodynamic model of the North Sea, these atmospheric future conditions are used to project storm surge heights for the Northwest European Shelf Sea. Four different projections are presented, all generated with the same Regional Climate Model, which itself is driven with two different Global Climate Model scenarios both exposed to two different emission scenarios. The analyses are carried out for a 30‐year time‐slice at the end of the 21st century. All four ensemble members point to a significant increase of storm surge elevations for the continental North Sea coast of between 15 and almost 25 cm. However, the different storm surge projections are not statistically distinguishable from each other but can provide a range of possible evolutions of surge extremes in a warmer climate.