VALIDATION OF AN INTEGRATED SATELLITE-DATA-DRIVEN RESPONSE TO AN EFFUSIVE CRISIS: THE APRIL-MAY 2018 ERUPTION OF PITON DE LA FOURNAISE
VALIDATION OF AN INTEGRATED SATELLITE-DATA-DRIVEN RESPONSE TO AN EFFUSIVE CRISIS: THE APRIL-MAY 2018 ERUPTION OF PITON DE LA FOURNAISE
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DOI：
10.4401/ag-7972
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Gurioli, Lucia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Harris, Andrew J. L.;Chevrel, Magdalena Oryaelle;Gurioli, Lucia
基于卫星的火山热点和火山羽流监测可以与建模相结合，从而允许采用基于整体的方法来应对危机。我们完成了热熔危机应对协议的基准测试，旨在提供用于跟踪熔岩流的产品。响应包括四个模型的集成：用于流量率（TADR）的MIROVA，用于交付高空间分辨率卫星数据的ASTER紧急响应协议，用于流动路径预测的DOWNFLOW，以及用于流量流出的PyFLOWGO。我们使用Piton de la Fournaise在2018年4月至5月爆发期间提供的数据来测试该协议，并将产品交付给Observatoire du Piton de la Fournaise。响应在2018年4月27日19点50分由警报初始化。最初DOWNFLOW-FLOWGO使用的是Piton de la Fournaise典型的TADRs，结果表明，以bb0 - 120m /s的速度流可以到达岛屿带路。第一个TADR （10-20 m(3)/s）在4月28日09:55可用，并且给出了1.2 - 2.5公里的流量。卫星立交桥与TADR提供之间的延迟为105分钟，模型结果在15分钟后发布。在喷发开始6小时后，完成了InSAR图像对，并给出了1.8公里的流长；验证跳动投影。之后，根据每个新的TADR更新出井量，并根据InSAR和ASTER测绘报告的流长进行检查。在35天的喷发过程中，总共处理了35对TADRs和15对InSAR图像，并提供了11张ASTER图像。
Satellite-based surveillance of volcanic hot spots and plumes can be coupled with modeling to allow ensemble-based approaches to crisis response. We complete benchmark tests on an effusive crisis response protocol aimed at delivering product for use in tracking lava flows. The response involves integration of four models: MIROVA for discharge rate (TADR), the ASTER urgent response protocol for delivery of high-spatial resolution satellite data, DOWNFLOW for flow path projections, and PyFLOWGO for flow run-out. We test the protocol using the data feed available during Piton de la Fournaise's April-May 2018 eruption, with product being delivered to the Observatoire du Piton de la Fournaise. The response was initialized by an alert at 19:50Z on 27 April 2018. Initially DOWNFLOW-FLOWGO were run using TADRs typical of Piton de la Fournaise, and revealed that flow at >120 m(3)/s could reach the island belt road. The first TADR (10-20 m(3)/s) was available at 09:55Z on 28 April, and gave flow run-outs of 1.2 - 2.5 km. The latency between satellite overpass and TADR provision was 105 minutes, with the model result being posted 15 minutes later. An InSAR image pair was completed six hours after the eruption began, and gave a flow length of 1.8 km; validating the run-out projection. Thereafter, run-outs were updated with each new TADR, and checked against flow lengths reported from InSAR and ASTER mapping. In all, 35 TADRs and 15 InSAR image pairs were processed during the 35-day-long eruption, and 11 ASTER images were delivered.