Heat and freshwater changes in the Indian Ocean region
Heat and freshwater changes in the Indian Ocean region
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-021-00192-6
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发表时间：
2021-07
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
C. Ummenhofer;S. Murty;J. Sprintall;Tong Lee;N. Abram
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Ummenhofer;S. Murty;J. Sprintall;Tong Lee;N. Abram
在整个印度洋-太平洋区域，表面温度、海洋热含量和随之而来的水文变化迅速上升，对海平面上升、海洋环流和区域淡水供应产生影响。在这篇综述中，我们综合了来自多个数据源的证据，以阐明在印度洋观察到的热量和淡水变化是否代表了水文循环的加剧，正如在变暖的世界中所预期的那样。在流域尺度上，世纪的变暖趋势可以明确地归因于人类引起的气候变化。然而，自1980年以来的变化，似乎占主导地位的年代际变化与年代际太平洋振荡，表现为变化的步行者环流和相应的重组的印度-太平洋热量和淡水平衡。这种变化，加上区域规模的趋势、短暂的观测记录和气候模式的不确定性，使得难以评估当代变化是否代表水文循环的一种人为强迫转变。因此，未来的工作必须侧重于维护和扩大遥感和原位观测的观测系统，以及扩大和整合珊瑚代理网络。改进海洋大陆区域的气候模型模拟及其太平洋和印度洋之间复杂的交换对于量化和归因印度洋-太平洋水文变化是进一步必要的。
Across the Indo-Pacific region, rapid increases in surface temperatures, ocean heat content and concomitant hydrological changes have implications for sea level rise, ocean circulation and regional freshwater availability. In this Review, we synthesize evidence from multiple data sources to elucidate whether the observed heat and freshwater changes in the Indian Ocean represent an intensification of the hydrological cycle, as expected in a warming world. At the basin scale, twentieth century warming trends can be unequivocally attributed to human-induced climate change. Changes since 1980, however, appear dominated by multi-decadal variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation, manifested as shifts in the Walker circulation and a corresponding reorganization of the Indo-Pacific heat and freshwater balance. Such variability, coupled with regional-scale trends, a short observational record and climate model uncertainties, makes it difficult to assess whether contemporary changes represent an anthropogenically forced transformation of the hydrological cycle. Future work must, therefore, focus on maintaining and expanding observing systems of remotely sensed and in situ observations, as well as extending and integrating coral proxy networks. Improved climate model simulations of the Maritime Continent region and its intricate exchange between the Pacific and Indian oceans are further necessary to quantify and attribute Indo-Pacific hydrological changes.