The impact of spikes in handgun acquisitions on firearm-related harms
The impact of spikes in handgun acquisitions on firearm-related harms
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DOI：
10.1186/s40621-019-0212-0
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Wintemute, Garen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Laqueur, Hannah S.;Kagawa, Rose M. C.;Wintemute, Garen
背景研究记录了在高调的大规模枪击事件和具体选举之后立即获得枪支的急剧和短暂的增加，增加了社区一级的枪支接触。我们利用跨城市的变化，在加州的估计数量过剩的手枪收购后，2012年总统大选和桑迪胡克学校枪击案5周后，以评估是否额外的手枪与枪支相关的伤害率在城市一级的增加。首先，我们估计多余的手枪之间的差异实际手枪收购，记录在加州的经销商销售记录，和预期的收购，预测的季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）时间序列模型。我们使用泊松回归模型来估计城市水平的枪支死亡率和injure.ResultsWe估计有36,142多余的手枪收购在加州在11周后的选举（95%的预测区间：22,780至49,505）的影响，城市水平的枪支购买率的变化;桑迪胡克枪击事件发生在第6周。我们发现，在选举后的52周内，城市一级的购买高峰与更高的火器伤害率相关：每1,000人中每多一支手枪的相对伤害率为1.044（95% CI：1.000至1.089）。这相当于加州一年中约有290例（95% CI：0至616）额外的火器伤害（约增加4%）。我们没有检测到统计学显着的关联较短的时间窗口或火器mortality.ConclusionThis study提供了证据，过度的手枪收购高调的事件和火器伤在社区层面之间的关联。这表明，即使手枪流行率略有增加，也可能产生影响。
BackgroundResearch has documented sharp and short-lived increases in firearm acquisitions immediately following high-profile mass shootings and specific elections, increasing exposure to firearms at the community level. We exploit cross-city variation in the estimated number of excess handgun acquisitions in California following the 2012 presidential election and the Sandy Hook school shooting 5 weeks later to assess whether the additional handguns were associated with increases in the rate of firearm-related harms at the city level.MethodsWe use a two-stage modeling approach. First, we estimate excess handguns as the difference between actual handgun acquisitions, as recorded in California's Dealer Record of Sales, and expected acquisitions, as predicted by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) time series model. We use Poisson regression models to estimate the effect of city-level excess handgun purchasing on city-level changes in rates of firearm mortality and injury.ResultsWe estimate there were 36,142 excess handguns acquired in California in the 11weeks following the election (95% prediction interval: 22,780 to 49,505); the Sandy Hook shooting occurred in week 6. We find city-level purchasing spikes were associated with higher rates of firearm injury in the 52weeks post-election: a relative rate of 1.044 firearm injuries for each excess handgun per 1,000 people (95% CI: 1.000 to 1.089). This amounts to approximately 290 (95% CI: 0 to 616) additional firearm injuries (roughly a 4% increase) in California over the year. We do not detect statistically significant associations for shorter time windows or for firearm mortality.ConclusionThis study provides evidence for an association between excess handgun acquisitions following high-profile events and firearm injury at the community level. This suggests that even marginal increases in handgun prevalence may be impactful.