STUDY ON THE FLOOD AND DROUGHT RISK AS OF GLOBAL WARMING BY REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
STUDY ON THE FLOOD AND DROUGHT RISK AS OF GLOBAL WARMING BY REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
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DOI：
10.2208/prohe.49.493
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发表时间：
2005-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Wada;M. Murase;Y. Tomizawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Wada;M. Murase;Y. Tomizawa
根据日本气象厅和气象研究所的区域气候模式的结果，估算了全球变暖对灾害风险的影响。该模型的水平分辨率约为20 km，预计模型输出将有助于未来的风险评估。在开始风险评估之前，通过与观测降水数据比较，验证了1981-2000年期间的模型输出值。检验结果表明，各模型对各地区降水量、月降水量正常值和年最大日降水量的代表性一般较好。根据模式输出结果分析，在2081-2100年期间，北海道西部、北方东北地区、北陆地区和南西诸岛的部分地区的百年极端日降水量将增加。而降水季节变化的结果表明，除北海道地区外，日本大部分地区从冬季到春季降水量将减少，干旱风险将增加。
The influence of global warming on hazard risk is estimated from the results of the regional climate model by Japan Meteorological Agency and Meteorological Research Institute. The horizontal resolution of the model is about 20km and the model outputs are expected to be useful for the risk assessment of the future. Before beginning the risk assessment, the model output values during 1981-2000 were verified by comparing with observed precipitation data. The verification shows that the precision of the models are generally well in representation of the precipitation, the normal value of the monthly precipitation and the annual maximum daily precipitation in each region. According to the analysis from the model outputs, the extreme daily precipitation in 100-yr time period will increase in some parts of western Hokkaido, northern Tohoku region, Hokuriku region and Nansei islands during 2081-2100. While, the result of the seasonal variation of precipitation shows that the precipitation will decrease especially in many areas in Japan except Hokkaido region from winter to spring, and the drought risk will increase there.