Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters
Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters
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DOI：
10.1080/09535314.2017.1369010
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Tatano, Hirokazu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kajitani, Yoshio;Tatano, Hirokazu
可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型已被广泛用于评估自然灾害的经济影响，但这些模型尚未通过将其应用于真实的灾害而得到充分验证。本研究的重点是验证一个模型，用于在一个短期运行的情况下，在几个月的时间尺度上发生的基础设施和业务的功能恢复。一个特殊的尝试，以确定替代弹性的参数值，这对供应链的影响起着重要的作用。在本研究中，空间CGE模型，其中日本分为9个地区，并应用于2011年东日本大地震和海啸的情况。通过这一应用，在受严重影响的地区和其他地区，与观察到的变化相比，弹性参数的最佳估计产生了相对一致的产量变化估计数。
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters, but the models have not been fully validated by applying them to real disasters. This study focuses on validating a model for use in a short-run case in which the functional recovery of infrastructure and businesses occurred on a time scale of a few months. A special attempt is made to determine the parameter values of elasticity of substitutions, which play an important role in the effect on supply chains. In this study, a spatial CGE model, in which Japan is divided into nine regions, is constructed and applied to the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Through this application, the best estimates of the elasticity parameters generated relatively consistent estimates of production change compared with the observed change, both in severely affected regions and in other regions.