Comparing and integrating the NUSAP notational scheme with an uncertainty based risk perspective
Comparing and integrating the NUSAP notational scheme with an uncertainty based risk perspective
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将 NUSAP 符号方案与基于不确定性的风险视角进行比较和整合
DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.001
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Roger Flage
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Berner;Roger Flage
发展表示风险评估中的不确定性的方法的努力遵循定量和半定量的路线，其中半定量在这里被理解为定量的表示，补充对所产生的数字没有充分和适当地捕捉到的方面的定性评估。后一种方法可称为扩展的定量风险评估，与所谓的政策科学不确定性和质量的NUSAP符号方案相似。在本文中，我们分析了NUSAP和风险的一般描述之间存在的相似之处，在最近出版的社会风险分析术语表概念化。除了在基本层面上对描述风险的不同方法获得见解外，一个目标是探索NUSAP符号方案的各个方面是否可以在与风险的一般描述一致的情况下使用并改进当前扩展定量风险评估的方法。我们得出结论，这两种方法之间有很强的相似之处，特别是在NUSAP中使用可视化工具可以有利地用于扩展的定量风险评估。本文用石油和天然气行业的一个简短例子来说明如何做到这一点。
Efforts to develop approaches to represent uncertainty in risk assessments follow both quantitative and semi-quantitative lines, where semi-quantitative is here to be understood as quantitative representation supplemented with qualitative assessments of aspects not sufficiently and appropriately captured by the produced numbers. The latter type of approach can be referred to as extended quantitative risk assessment and has parallels with the so-called NUSAP notational scheme of uncertainty and quality in science for policy. In the present paper we analyse the parallels that exist between NUSAP and a general description of risk as conceptualised in the recently published Society for Risk Analysis glossary. In addition to obtaining insights at the fundamental level into different approaches to describe risk, an objective is to explore whether aspects from the NUSAP notational scheme can be used within the context of and to improve current methods for extended quantitative risk assessment consistent with the general description of risk. We conclude that there are strong parallels between the two approaches and that particularly the use of visualisation tools in NUSAP can advantageously be utilised in extended quantitative risk assessments. A short example from the oil and gas industry is used to illustrate how this can be done.