When alternative hypotheses shape your beliefs: Context effects in probability judgments
When alternative hypotheses shape your beliefs: Context effects in probability judgments
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当替代假设塑造你的信念时：概率判断中的背景效应
DOI：
10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105306
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Pleskac, Timothy J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cai, Xiaohong;Pleskac, Timothy J.
当人们被要求估计一个事件发生的概率时，有时会对同一事件的不同描述做出不同的主观概率判断。这意味着做出这些判断所采用的证据或支持是基于对事件（假设）的描述，而不是事件本身，正如 Tversky 和 Koehler（1994）的支持理论所捕获的那样。然而，支持理论假设每个假设都会得到固定水平的支持（支持不变性）。在这里，通过三项研究，我们通过要求参与者在给定一组相关统计数据的情况下估计事件发生的概率来测试这种支持不变性假设。我们表明，关于目标假设的支持可能取决于正在考虑的其他假设。结果表明，对于一对相互竞争的假设，当存在无用假设（由目标假设主导的假设）时，一个假设（目标假设）相对于另一个假设更具竞争力。我们还发现，当存在相似者（与目标假设相似的假设）时，目标假设相对于另一个假设的竞争力可能会较低。这些背景效应使支持理论中的支持不变性假设失效，并表明驱动偏好构建的类似过程也可能是信念构建的基础。
When people are asked to estimate the probability of an event occurring, they sometimes make different subjective probability judgments for different descriptions of the same event. This implies the evidence or support recruited to make these judgments is based on the descriptions of the events (hypotheses) instead of the events themselves, as captured by Tversky and Koehler’s (1994) support theory. Support theory, however, assumes each hypothesis elicits a fixed level of support (support invariance). Here, across three studies, we tested this support invariance assumption by asking participants to estimate the probability that an event would occur given a set of relevant statistics. We show that the support recruited about a target hypothesis can depend on the other hypotheses under consideration. Results reveal that for a pair of competing hypotheses, one hypothesis (the target hypothesis) appears more competitive relative to the other when a dud–a hypothesis dominated by the target hypothesis–is present. We also find that the target hypothesis can appear less competitive relative to the other when a resembler–a hypothesis that is similar to the target hypothesis–is present. These context effects invalidate the support invariance assumption in support theory and suggest that a similar process that drives preference construction may also underlie belief construction.
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Tsetsos K;Usher M;McClelland JL
通讯作者：
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
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