Survival nomograms for colorectal carcinoma patients with lung metastasis and lung-only metastasis, based on the SEER database and a single-center external validation cohort.
Survival nomograms for colorectal carcinoma patients with lung metastasis and lung-only metastasis, based on the SEER database and a single-center external validation cohort.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12876-022-02547-9
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发表时间：
2022-11-05
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Xiang, Zuo-Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Lin-Lin;Sun, Jun-Die;Xiang, Zuo-Lin
我们分析了结直肠癌（CRC）肺转移和仅肺转移患者的生存率，并确定了CRC患者肺转移的危险因素。2010年至2015年诊断为肺转移的结直肠癌患者的数据来自SEER数据库。使用Kaplan-Meier方法和对数秩检验、考克斯比例风险回归模型和竞争风险模型分析生存率。通过一致性指数（C指数）和校准曲线评估nomgram的预测能力。使用2016-2019年期间SEER数据库的数据作为外部验证集。回顾性分析了2016年至2019年期间在上海东方医院接受治疗的70例CRC患者的特征，并选择来自中国的数据作为外部验证集。结直肠癌肺转移患者的中位生存期为12个月，而仅肺转移患者的中位生存期为24个月。结直肠癌肺转移患者中，年龄、肿瘤分级、T分期、N分期、有无肝、脑、骨转移、解剖部位及手术方式与总生存期有关。在仅发生肺转移的结直肠癌患者中，年龄、T分期、婚姻状况、化疗和手术是影响OS的独立预后因素。建立了两个预测OS的诺模图，具有很好的区分度（C指数在0.67和0.81之间）和良好的校准。年龄、种族、性别、肿瘤分级、T分期、N分期、有无肝、脑、骨转移、婚姻状况、保险状况、解剖部位与结直肠癌肺转移的发生有关。我们在结直肠癌患者中建立了两个可靠的临床预测模型来预测肺转移和仅肺转移患者的OS率。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s12876-022-02547-9获得。
We analysed the survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with lung metastasis and lung-only metastasis and determined the risk factors for lung metastasis in CRC patients. Data from colorectal cancer patients with lung metastasis diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from the SEER database. Survival was analysed using the Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test, the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and a competing risk model. The predictive ability of the nomgram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. The data from the SEER database for the period 2016–2019 was used as an external validation set. The characteristics of 70 CRC patients treated at Shanghai East Hospital between 2016 and 2019 were retrospectively analysed and data from China was chosen as an external validation set. The median survival time for colorectal cancer patients with lung metastasis was 12 months, while this value was 24 months in patients with lung-only metastasis. Among all CRC patients with lung metastasis, age, grade, T stage, N stage, presence of liver, brain or bone metastasis, anatomic site and surgery were related to overall survival (OS). In CRC patients with lung-only metastasis, age, T stage, marital status, chemotherapy and surgery were independent prognostic factors affecting OS. Two nomograms predicting OS were established, with great discrimination (C-index between 0.67 and 0.81) and excellent calibration. Factors including age, race, sex, tumour grade, T stage, N stage, presence of liver, brain or bone metastasis, marital status, insurance status and anatomic location were related to the occurrence of lung metastasis in CRC patients. We developed two reliable clinical prediction models among CRC patients to predict the OS rates in patients with lung metastasis and lung metastasis only. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02547-9.
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
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通讯作者：
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