Bayes plus Brass: estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data.
Bayes plus Brass: estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data.
复制标题
贝叶斯加黄铜：根据稀疏的人口普查数据估算许多小地区的总生育率。
DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2013.795602
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Potter,JosephE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Schmertmann,CarlP;Cavenaghi,SuzanaM;Assunção,RenatoM;Potter,JosephE
Estimates of fertility in small areas are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. In these circumstances estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required; they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas; and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step procedure for estimating total fertility in such circumstances and illustrate it by applying the method to data from the 2000 Brazilian Census for over 5,000 municipalities. Our proposed procedure first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods and then applies a new variant of Brass's P/F parity correction procedure that is robust to conditions of rapid fertility decline.Supplementary material at the project website (http://schmert.net/BayesBrass) will allow readers to replicate all the authors’ results in this paper using their data and programs.
