Integrated Environmental Assessment of Future Energy Scenarios Based on Economic Equilibrium Models
Integrated Environmental Assessment of Future Energy Scenarios Based on Economic Equilibrium Models
复制标题
基于经济均衡模型的未来能源情景综合环境评估
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2565685
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Tom Haas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Igos;B. Rugani;S. Rege;E. Benetto;L. Drouet;D. Zachary;Tom Haas
生命周期评估；能源情景；一般均衡模型；技术经济模型；环境延伸的投入产出；摘要 - 能源供应技术的未来发展在很大程度上取决于（并影响）经济和环境系统，因为该行业高度依赖化石燃料的可用性和成本，特别是在小区域范围内。本文旨在介绍在卢森堡规模上进行的一个研究项目的建模系统和初步结果，该项目旨在评估该国未来能源情景对环境的影响，将部分和可计算的一般平衡模型的输出整合到混合生命周期评估（LCA）框架内。卢森堡一般均衡模型 LUXGEM 用于评估 2006-2030 年期间政策决策和其他经济冲击的经济影响。卢森堡的技术经济（部分均衡）模型 ETEM 用于计算各种技术的运行水平，以便在同一时间线上以最低成本满足能源服务的需求。通过将ETEM与LUXGEM耦合，使未来的能源需求和供应保持一致，从而使两个模型具有相同的宏观经济变量和能源份额。然后将耦合结果在历史时间序列的一组环境扩展输入输出（EE-IO）模型中实施，以测试综合框架的可行性，然后评估该国的环境影响。因此，利用 EE-IO 中的不同 ETEM 技术构建了分类能源部门，以允许与生命周期清单 (LCI) 混合并丰富过程细节。结果显示，2006年至2009年，环境影响总体略有下降。大部分影响来自一些进口商品（用于发电的天然气、金属矿石和金属废料）。主要能源生产技术是联合循环燃气轮机发电厂“Twinerg”，几乎占卢森堡国内发电量的 80%。在混合 EE-IO 模型中，该技术约占该国净消费总影响的 7%。还彻底调查了 ETEM 和 LUXGEM 之间差异的原因，以概述未来使用 EE-IO 评估环境影响的建模改进的可能策略。进一步的分析首先关注模型耦合的完成及其在定义场景中的应用。一旦耦合一致完成，LUXGEM 就可以计算 2010 年至 2030 年的 IO 流量，而混合系统中的 LCI 流程则与 ETEM 协调一致，以代表未来的国内和进口能源技术。
Life cycle assessment; energy scenarios; general equilibrium model; techno-economic model; environmentally-extended input- output; hybridization Abstract - The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sec- tor on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilib- rium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy deci- sions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006−2030. A techno-economic (par- tial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energydemand andsupplyare made consistent bycoupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally- Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Ac- cordingly, a disaggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant "Twinerg", representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg. In the hybrid EE-IO model, this technol- ogy contributes to around 7% of the total impact of the country's net consumption. The causes of divergence between ETEM and LUXGEM are also thoroughly investigated to out- line possible strategies of modeling improvements for future assessment of environmental impacts using EE-IO. Further analyses focus first on the completion of the models' coupling and its application to the defined scenarios. Once the coupling is consistently accomplished, LUXGEM can compute the IO flows from 2010 to 2030, while the LCI processes in the hybrid system are harmonized with ETEM to represent the future domestic and imported energy technologies.