Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk
Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk
复制标题
人为变暖和区域社会经济发展不平衡对全球河流洪水风险的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125262
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Huiqian Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xihui Gu;Qiang Zhang;Jianfeng Li;Deliang Chen;Vijay P. Singh;Yongqiang Zhang;Jianyu Liu;Zexi Shen;Huiqian Yu
采用多模型框架，我们估计对比变暖水平和不平衡的区域社会经济发展对面积，人口和国内生产总值（GDP）暴露于洪水量级和全球洪水影响地区（法尔斯）的影响。这些暴露于洪水变异性表明法尔斯持续增加，但洪水量级仅在东亚和南亚。在全球范围内，预计这些风险的增加不会出现在中度洪水中，而是出现在极端洪水中。具体而言，中度（极端）洪水的面积暴露将减少（增加）1.8%/°C（1.9%/°C）;当限制2 °C至1.5 °C变暖时，极端洪水的人口暴露减少量可能是中度洪水的三倍。东亚和南亚地区经济的快速增长（其GDP占法尔斯的9.8%，2000年为18.5%，2025年为18.5%）将使全球GDP风险从下降2.5%/°C转变为增加1.7%/°C。
Employing a multi-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/°C (1.9%/°C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 °C to 1.5 °C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/°C to an increase of 1.7%/°C.