Long term simulations of macronutrients (C, N and P) in UK freshwaters
Long term simulations of macronutrients (C, N and P) in UK freshwaters
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145813
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发表时间：
2021-03-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Wu, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bell, V. A.;Naden, P. S.;Wu, L.
在过去的两个世纪里，许多工业化国家的景观已经被农业的扩展和集约化、大气污染、人类废物（随着人口增长而增加）以及现在的气候变化所改变。本文介绍的研究旨在了解和量化这些长期变化如何影响英国淡水和大量营养素流入海洋。这里介绍的长期大尺度（LTLS）淡水模型使用了现成的驱动数据（气候，土地利用，营养物质输入，流域地形），以了解和量化英国常量营养素历史的变化如何影响淡水储量和通量。从1800年到2010年，模型重建的碳，氮和磷（C，N和P）的来源和通量表明，第二次世界大战后农业肥料使用的快速增加，以及人口的增加，导致N和P通量迅速增加到河流。在此期间，模拟表明，在河流中的氮的主要来源从改良草地耕地，溶解氮出口到河流翻了两番，P从人类粪便增加了-600%，尽管废水处理。模拟还表明，20世纪40年代和90年代之间的地下水中的硝酸盐净储存，并在1990年后向沿海沃茨净释放，但地下水保留和后来释放的C&P不太重要。总体而言，模拟表明，进入沃茨的C、N和P有75%以上直接进入沿海沃茨，15-20%的C和N在河流过程中被去除。这些结果构成了第一个在国家范围内对淡水常量营养素变化进行的基于过程的综合建模评估。LTLS ap-proach提供了一种方法来开发陆地，淡水，大气和海洋过程的完全耦合的全球模型，可以考虑到土地管理和气候的变化。(c)2021年，任作者。由爱思唯尔公司出版。这是一篇开放获取的文章，使用CC BY许可证（http：//creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/）。
Over the last two centuries, the landscape of many industrialised nations has been transformed by the spread and intensification of agriculture, by atmospheric pollution, by human waste (rising in line with population growth), and now by changes in the climate. The research presented here aims to understand and quantify how these long-term changes have impacted UK freshwaters and the flux of macronutrients to the sea. The Long Term Large Scale (LTLS) Freshwater Model presented here used readily-available driving data (climate, land-use, nutrient inputs, catchment topography) to understand and quantify how changes in the UK's macronutrient histories have impacted on freshwater stores and fluxes. Model-reconstructed sources and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus (C, N and P) from 1800 to 2010 indicate that the rapid increase in the use of agricultural fertilisers after the second world war, and the rising human population, led to a rapid rise in N & P fluxes to rivers. During this period, the modelling shows that the dominant source of N in rivers changed from improved grassland to arable, the dissolved N export to rivers quadrupled, and P from human waste increased by-600%, despite waste water treatment. The simulations also indicate a net storage of nitrates in groundwater between the 1940s and 1990s, and a net release to coastal waters post-1990; but groundwater retention and later release of C&P are less significant. Overall, modelling indicates that >75% of C, N and P entering freshwaters goes directly to the coastal waters, with 15-20% of C & N removed in river processes. These results constitute the first process based integrated modelling assessment of freshwater macronutrient change at a national scale. The LTLS ap-proach provides a methodology to develop fully-coupled global models of terrestrial, freshwater, atmospheric and marine processes that can take account of changes in land-management and climate.(c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).