Sensitivity of Historical Simulation of the Permafrost to Different Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets from 1979 to 2009
Sensitivity of Historical Simulation of the Permafrost to Different Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets from 1979 to 2009
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DOI：
10.1002/2017jd027477
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发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Donglin Guo;Huijun Wang;Aihui Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Donglin Guo;Huijun Wang;Aihui Wang
数值模拟对于研究大空间和长时间尺度的冻土变化具有重要意义。先前的研究主要集中在冻土模拟模型改进的影响上。这里使用社区土地模型 4.5 版 (CLM4.5) 结合三组新开发的基于再分析的大气强迫数据集（NOAA 气候预报系统再分析 (CFSR)、欧洲中期天气预报再分析中心 (ERA-I) 和 NASA 现代时代回顾性研究和应用分析 (MERRA)），检查永冻土模拟对不同大气强迫数据集的敏感性。所有三个模拟均在 1979 年至 2009 年期间以 0.5° × 0.5° 的分辨率运行，并使用被认为是最佳可用永久冻土观测（土壤温度、活动层厚度和永久冻土范围）进行验证。结果表明，使用基于再分析的大气强迫数据集再现了土壤温度和活动层厚度的变化，但在气候学上产生了明显的偏差。总体而言，基于 CFSR 和 ERA-I 数据集的模拟比基于 MERRA 数据集的模拟给出了更合理的结果，特别是对于当今的永久冻土范围和活动层厚度的变化。这三个模拟产生了当前气候的范围（永久冻土面积：11.31–13.57 × 106 km2；活动层厚度：1.10–1.26 m）和近期变化（永久冻土面积：-5.8% 至 -9.0%；活动层厚度：9.9%–20.2%）。这些模拟中气温升高、积雪深度和永久冻土热条件的差异导致了模拟结果的差异。
Numerical simulation is of great importance to the investigation of changes in frozen ground on large spatial and long temporal scales. Previous studies have focused on the impacts of improvements in the model for the simulation of frozen ground. Here the sensitivities of permafrost simulation to different atmospheric forcing data sets are examined using the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM4.5), in combination with three sets of newly developed and reanalysis‐based atmospheric forcing data sets (NOAA Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Re‐Analysis Interim (ERA‐I), and NASA Modern Era Retrospective‐Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)). All three simulations were run from 1979 to 2009 at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and validated with what is considered to be the best available permafrost observations (soil temperature, active layer thickness, and permafrost extent). Results show that the use of reanalysis‐based atmospheric forcing data set reproduces the variations in soil temperature and active layer thickness but produces evident biases in their climatologies. Overall, the simulations based on the CFSR and ERA‐I data sets give more reasonable results than the simulation based on the MERRA data set, particularly for the present‐day permafrost extent and the change in active layer thickness. The three simulations produce ranges for the present‐day climatology (permafrost area: 11.31–13.57 × 106 km2; active layer thickness: 1.10–1.26 m) and for recent changes (permafrost area: −5.8% to −9.0%; active layer thickness: 9.9%–20.2%). The differences in air temperature increase, snow depth, and permafrost thermal conditions in these simulations contribute to the differences in simulated results.