Predictability of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings: Analysis Results from JMA Operational 1-Month Ensemble Predictions from 2001/02 to 2012/13
Predictability of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings: Analysis Results from JMA Operational 1-Month Ensemble Predictions from 2001/02 to 2012/13
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DOI：
10.1175/jas-d-15-0201.1
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发表时间：
2016-02
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
M. Taguchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Taguchi
摘要本文研究了平流层主要突发性增温事件（MSSW）的可预报性，主要问题是：MSSW能提前多久预报？通过分析日本气象厅2001/02 - 2012/13年的业务1个月集合预报数据，并与日本55年再分析项目（JRA-55）数据进行比较，揭示了MSSW可预报性的平均图像和个案间变化。这些变化还与对流层到平流层的行星波强迫（PWF）有关。列联表分析9个MSSW发生在此期间表明，成功预报MSSW的集合成员的平均百分比是约70%，30%，和20%的提前5天，10天，和15天，分别当实际和预测的涡崩溃，或纬向风逆转，允许3天的时间差。利用10 hPa高度场的均方根误差和距平相关等方法，对10 hPa高度场的异常变化进行了预测。
AbstractThis study investigates the predictability of major stratospheric sudden warmings (MSSWs) with a chief question: how far in advance can MSSWs be forecasted? An average picture and case-to-case variations of the MSSW predictability are revealed by analyzing operational 1-month ensemble prediction data of the Japan Meteorological Agency from 2001/02 to 2012/13 in comparison with the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-55) data. The variations are further related to planetary wave forcing (PWF) from the troposphere to the stratosphere. A contingency table analysis for nine MSSWs occurring in the period shows that the average percentage of ensemble members that successfully forecast the MSSWs is about 70%, 30%, and 20% for lead times of 5, 10, and 15 days, respectively, when a 3-day time difference between actual and forecasted vortex collapses, or zonal wind reversals, is allowed. Using other measures such as the root-mean-square error and anomaly correlation of 10-hPa geopotential height, forec...