A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China.
A sex-role-preference model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2458-9-s1-s10
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发表时间：
2009-11-18
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Shao Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lou J;Wu J;Chen L;Ruan Y;Shao Y
男男性行为者（MSM）比一般人群更容易感染艾滋病毒。中国有相当多的男同性恋者，包括同性恋、双性恋男性、金钱男孩和一些农民工。因此，减少这一人群的艾滋病毒感染是国家艾滋病毒/艾滋病防治规划的重要组成部分。我们开发了一个使用性别角色偏好框架的数学模型来预测MSM人群中的HIV感染，并评估不同的干预策略。得到了基本繁殖比R0的解析公式；在当前情况下，R0 = 3.9296，如果不及时采取干预措施，HIV将在MSM人群中迅速传播。HIV感染的持续性和疾病平衡的存在性也得到了证明。我们利用我们的模型来模拟抗逆转录病毒治疗和MSM人群接种疫苗的可能结果。我们比较了这些干预措施在不同假设下对男男性行为的影响。我们还发现R0是hiv感染者死亡率的递减函数，至少在渐近情况下服从幂律。除非紧急实施干预措施，否则艾滋病毒将在男同性恋人群中迅速传播。即使考虑到解除抑制，抗逆转录病毒治疗也可以对减少男同性恋人群中的艾滋病毒产生实质性影响。保护性行为对控制男男性行为人群中艾滋病流行的效果在很大程度上取决于不同亚群体的性别比例偏好。
Men who have sex with men (MSM) are much more likely to be infected with HIV than the general population. China has a sizable population of MSM, including gay, bisexual men, money boys and some rural workers. So reducing HIV infection in this population is an important component of the national HIV/AIDS prevention and control program. We develop a mathematical model using a sex-role-preference framework to predict HIV infection in the MSM population and to evaluate different intervention strategies. An analytic formula for the basic reproduction ratio R0 was obtained; this yields R0 = 3.9296 in the current situation, so HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population if no intervention measure is implemented in a timely fashion. The persistence of HIV infection and the existence of disease equilibrium (or equilibria) are also shown. We utilized our model to simulate possible outcomes of antiretroviral therapy and vaccination for the MSM population. We compared the effects of these intervention measures under different assumptions about MSM behaviour. We also found that R0 is a decreasing function of the death rate of HIV-infected individuals, following a power law at least asymptotically. HIV will spread very fast in the MSM population unless intervention measures are implemented urgently. Antiretroviral therapy can have substantial impact on the reduction of HIV among the MSM population, even if disinhibition is considered. The effect of protected sexual behaviour on controlling the epidemic in the MSM population largely depends on the sex-ratio preference of different sub-populations.