Downscaling modeling of the aggressiveness of mosquitoes vectors of diseases
Downscaling modeling of the aggressiveness of mosquitoes vectors of diseases
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.01.024
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发表时间：
2007-06-16
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Bicout, Dominique J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chalvet-Monfray, Karine;Sabatier, Philippe;Bicout, Dominique J.
蚊子对人类的攻击性通常是在不同的时间尺度上测量的，但由于实践中需要大量的工作，因此从未连续测量。我们开发了一种通用的降尺度方法来模拟蚊子的侵略性在短期和长期的基础上，根据每个时间尺度的侵略性与解释性的环境变量的一系列叠瓦状广义线性模型。将该方法应用于对秀丽库蚊（Culex modestus）的观察，模拟其在适宜季节的逐时攻击性，描述其被叮咬的低、中、高风险期。谦虚被咬伤的风险较高的时间是：（i）夏季初的黄昏和夜晚;（ii）夏季后期的黄昏、白天和天顶;（iii）夏季末的下午。在（i）3月初和4月底至5月底的白天和（ii）3月至4月的夜晚（包括4月）发现风险较低。其余期间的风险为中等。(C)2007 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
The aggressiveness of mosquitoes towards humans is often measured on different time scales but never continuously because of the amount of work required in practice. We developed a general downscaling method to simulate the aggressiveness of mosquitoes over short and long time periods based on a series of imbricated generalized linear models that link aggressiveness with explicative environmental variables according to each time scale. This method was applied to observations of Culex modestus; in order to simulate hourly aggressiveness during the favorable season and describe the periods of low, medium and high risk of being bitten by C. modestus. The higher risk of being bitten is found (i) at the beginning of summer during twilight and at night; (ii) later in summer during twilight, day light and zenith and (iii) at the end of summer during the afternoon only. The lower risk is found during (i) the day at the beginning of March and from the end of April to the end of May and (ii) the night from March to April inclusive. The risk is moderate for the remaining periods. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.