Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006
Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006
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DOI：
10.1186/1297-9716-42-53
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发表时间：
2011-03-24
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Elbers, Armin R. W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
de Koeijer, Aline A.;Boender, Gert Jan;Elbers, Armin R. W.
最近蓝舌病病毒血清型8（BTV-8）在西欧的流行严重打击。控制感染是困难的，直到2008年春天才有一种良好和安全的疫苗。关于BTV在西欧的传播或控制措施的有效性知之甚少。传播的量化细节是必不可少的，以评估这种措施的潜力和效力。为了量化牛群之间的病毒传播，时间和时空分析适用于2006年报告的受感染牛群的数据。我们计算了牛群之间的基本繁殖数（R-h：预期的新感染数，由易感环境中的一个初始感染牛群产生）。它被发现与荷兰口蹄疫（FMD）感染的数量级相同，即。G.四点左右。我们的结论是，在西欧牛群之间传播BTV-8需要至少15摄氏度的平均日温。我们还发现，应用疾病控制（基于20 km半径的空间区域，限制动物运输到外部区域）导致BTV-8的空间传播模式，85%的传播被限制在20 km范围内。这20公里相当于保护区的规模。我们的结论是，与动物运动限制的情况相比，自由的动物运动导致BTV-8流行病在太空中的传播速度更快。
The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures.To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (R-h: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e. g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15 degrees C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission.We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.