A spatiotemporal model for extreme precipitation simulated by a climate model, with an application to assessing changes in return levels over North America
A spatiotemporal model for extreme precipitation simulated by a climate model, with an application to assessing changes in return levels over North America
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由气候模型模拟的极端降水时空模型，用于评估北美地区回报水平的变化
DOI：
10.1111/rssc.12212
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Angers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Jalbert;A. Favre;Claude J. P. Bélisle;J. Angers
极端降水在洪水事件中起主要作用，预计其发生和强度将增加。由于气候模型是提供降水定量预测的唯一工具，未来气候的洪水风险管理可能基于对此类事件的模拟。该文件的目标是开发一个极端情况的时空统计模型，该模型特别适合于气候模型的输出，这些输出是短暂的，位于规则网格上。利用提出的统计模型，预计降水返回水平为未来的气候在北美地区进行了估计。
Extreme precipitation plays a major role in flooding events and their occurrence and intensity are expected to increase. Because climate models are the only tools for providing quantitative projections of precipitation, flood risk management for the future climate may be based on the simulation of such events. The goal of the paper is to develop a spatiotemporal statistical model for extremes that is particularly suited to climate model outputs, which are transient and lie on a regular grid. Using the statistical model proposed, projected precipitation return levels for the coming climate over North America are estimated.