The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market Effect.
The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market Effect.
复制标题
我们死得越多，我们卖得越多？
DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjz003
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Williams,Heidi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Costinot,Arnaud;Donaldson,Dave;Kyle,Margaret;Williams,Heidi
国内市场效应最早由Linder(1961)提出，后来由Krugman(1980)正式提出，即国内对某些产品的需求较大的国家在国外的相同产品的销售量也较大。在这篇文章中，我们利用全球制药行业的详细药品销售数据，开发了一个简单的国内市场效应测试。我们经验主义战略的核心是观察到，一个国家的外生人口构成可以用来预测该国居民最有可能死于的疾病，进而预测他们最有可能要求的药物。我们发现，预测的国内需求和海外销售之间的相关性是正的，并且大于预测的国内需求和国外购买之间的相关性。简而言之，正如Linder(1961)和Krugman(1980)预测的那样，各国往往是它们最需要的药物的净销售者。
The home-market effect, first hypothesized by Linder (1961) and later formalized by Krugman (1980), is the idea that countries with larger demand for some products at home tend to have larger sales of the same products abroad. In this article, we develop a simple test of the home-market effect using detailed drug sales data from the global pharmaceutical industry. The core of our empirical strategy is the observation that a country’s exogenous demographic composition can be used as a predictor of the diseases that its inhabitants are most likely to die from and, in turn, the drugs they are most likely to demand. We find that the correlation between predicted home demand and sales abroad is positive and greater than the correlation between predicted home demand and purchases from abroad. In short, countries tend to be net sellers of the drugs they demand the most, as predicted by Linder (1961) and Krugman (1980).