Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment
Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment
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DOI：
10.3390/cli3041079
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Dawson, Richard J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dawson, Richard J.
气候变化风险评估通常侧重于个别部门或危害。然而，气候风险之间的相互依赖性通过功能、物理、地理、经济、政策和社会机制表现出来。这些可能发生在一系列空间或时间尺度上，并具有不同的耦合强度。三个案例研究被用来说明相互依赖性如何能够显著改变风险的性质和程度，从而改变适应投资的优先次序。这三个例子探讨了以下因素产生的相互依赖性：（1）气候负荷依赖性;（2）在大空间范围内运作的物理过程对两种气候影响的调解;（3）受共同气候和社会经济驱动因素影响的多种风险。根据从这些案例研究和其他工作中吸取的经验教训，制定了一个框架，用于分析和审议气候变化风险评估中的相互依存关系。这是一个反复的学习循环，涉及界定系统、确定互动机制的范围、应用适当的建模工具、查明脆弱性和机会以及评估适应干预措施的绩效。
Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1) climate loading dependence; (2) mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3) multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.