Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?
Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?
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DOI：
10.3386/w23134
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发表时间：
2017-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Ilzetzki;Carmen M. Reinhart;Kenneth Rogoff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Ilzetzki;Carmen M. Reinhart;Kenneth Rogoff
这份白皮书提供了194个国家和地区1946-2016年间锚定货币或参考货币、汇率安排和新的外汇限制措施的全面历史。我们发现，经常提到的后布雷顿森林体系从固定安排向灵活安排的过渡被夸大了；灵活性有限的制度仍然占多数。我们的核心发现是，美元(以很大的优势)成为世界主要的锚定货币，以某些指标衡量，它的使用范围比70年前要广泛得多。相比之下，欧元的全球角色近年来似乎停滞不前。虽然资本账户限制的发生率几十年来一直在下降，但资本市场一体化的重要浪潮可以追溯到20世纪90年代中期。我们认为，2002年后外汇储备的创纪录积累与许多国家在资本流动性明显增强的环境下稳定汇率的愿望有很大关系。事实上，尽管2003年后资本流动性增强，但人们仍希望管理汇率，这可能是一些人最近指出的现代特里芬困境的一个关键因素。
This paper provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. We find that the often-cited post-Bretton Woods transition from fixed to flexible arrangements is overstated; regimes with limited flexibility remain in the majority. Our central finding is that the US dollar scores (by a wide margin) as the world’s dominant anchor currency and, by some metrics, its use is far wider today than 70 years ago. In contrast, the global role of the euro appears to have stalled in recent years. While the incidence of capital account restrictions has been trending lower for decades, an important wave toward capital market integration dates as recently as the mid-1990s. We suggest that record accumulation of reserves post 2002 has much to do with many countries’ desire to stabilize exchange rates in an environment of markedly greater capital mobility. Indeed, the continuing desire to manage exchange rates despite increased capital mobility post-2003 may be a key factor underpinning the modern-day Triffin dilemma that some have recently pointed to.