Paleodemography: expectancy and false hope.
Paleodemography: expectancy and false hope.
复制标题
古人口学：期望和虚假的希望。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
C. Masset
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Bocquet;C. Masset
从产生的代表死亡年龄与假设生物指标之间不同水平相关性（r）的随机母体（N = 50，000）中随机抽取参考样本和目标人口样本。两个迭代技术，比例拟合过程和贝叶斯，被用来估计从参考样本的目标的年龄分布。由于老化模式的随机波动，在参考和目标样本中，这些技术仅在预期中收敛于分布的真实值，但在实践中并不收敛于任何特定的实现。然而，这些技术允许估计年龄分布的平均值，即使其形状是未知的。假设目标样本来自固定人口，则这一平均数代表20岁（加20岁）的预期寿命。使用这个平均死亡年龄的成年人和幼年指数在死亡（D5-14/D20-Ω），一个新的一套古人口估计来自40古老的生命表。对于一个假设的稳定人口，他们给出了出生时和20岁时的预期寿命，以及1岁和5岁时的死亡概率。
From parent populations (N = 50,000) stochastically generated, representing different levels of correlation (r) between the age at death and a hypothetical biological indicator (r = 0.8-0.98), reference samples and target demographic samples are randomly drawn. Two iterative techniques, proportional fitting procedure and Bayesian, are used to estimate from the reference samples the age distribution of the targets. Due to the random fluctuations of the pattern of aging, both in the reference and target samples, these techniques converge only in expectation toward the true value of a distribution, but not in practice for any particular realization. Nevertheless, these techniques allow the estimation of the average of an age distribution, even if its shape is unknown. Under the hypothesis that the target sample is drawn from a stationary population, this average represents the life expectancy at 20 years (plus 20 years). Using this mean age at death for the adults and the juvenility index at death (D5-14/D20-omega), a new set of paleodemographic estimators were derived from 40 archaic life tables. For a hypothesized stable population, they give the life expectancy at birth and at 20 years, and the probability of death at 1 and 5 years.
人类学人口学中年龄结构的估计。
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Konigsberg,LW;Frankenberg,SR
通讯作者：
Frankenberg,SR