Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events
Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0436-2
复制
发表时间：
2012-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Kalkstein, Laurence S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sheridan, Scott C.;Lee, Cameron C.;Kalkstein, Laurence S.
在不规则但强烈的高温事件中，过度的高温会显著影响加州人的健康。到了21世纪，由于该州经历了气候变化和人口老龄化，其影响可能会显著增加。为了评估这种影响，未来热相关的死亡率估计得出的9个大都市地区的状态为世纪的剩余时间。在第一部分中，我们用天气气候学方法预测了未来几年的压迫性天气日和召唤日事件的变化。首先，历史上的地面天气类型与500毫巴和700毫巴的环流模式以及850毫巴的温度模式有关。GCM的输出，然后利用判别函数分析来分类未来的环流模式，和多项式逻辑回归是用来推导未来的地面天气类型在加州的六个站。五种不同的气候模式情景进行了研究。结果显示，在21世纪世纪，高温事件显著增加，压迫性天气类型的频率可能增加一倍以上，在沿海地区，2周或更长时间的高温事件变得更常见，高达10倍。
Excessive heat significantly impacts the health of Californians during irregular but intense heat events. Through the 21st century, a significant increase in impact is likely, as the state experiences a changing climate as well as an aging population. To assess this impact, future heat-related mortality estimates were derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Here in Part I, changes in oppressive weather days and consecutive-day events are projected for future years by a synoptic climatological method. First, historical surface weather types are related to circulation patterns at 500mb and 700mb, and temperature patterns at 850mb. GCM output is then utilized to classify future circulation patterns via discriminant function analysis, and multinomial logistic regression is used to derive future surface weather type at each of six stations in California. Five different climate model-scenarios are examined. Results show a significant increase in heat events over the 21st century, with oppressive weather types potentially more than doubling in frequency, and with heat events of 2 weeks or longer becoming up to ten times more common at coastal locations.