How uncertainty stimulates over-harvesting in a resource dilemma: Three process explanations
How uncertainty stimulates over-harvesting in a resource dilemma: Three process explanations
复制标题
DOI：
10.1006/jevp.2002.0257
复制
发表时间：
2002-09-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Vlek, CAJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jager, W;Janssen, MA;Vlek, CAJ
我们报告了一系列的计算机模拟实验，关于一个共同的资源管理。我们特别感兴趣的是不确定性和满意度对模拟代理的收获行为的影响。受威胁资源的长期动态的实验研究很难使用人类受试者进行。因此，我们对模拟消费者进行了实验，即所谓的消费者，其属性来自消费者行为的综合多理论模型。消费者具备需求和能力，并可能参与不同的认知过程，如深思熟虑，社会比较，模仿和重复以前的行为。在第一个模拟实验中，我们展示了不确定性如何刺激模仿效应，促进过度捕捞。在随后的两个系列的实验中，我们表明，增加不确定性的结果在consumats对未来的结果，模仿行为的可能性增加，并在资源枯竭的收获行为的适应性较低的增加“乐观”。这些“过程效应”促进了从集体资源中获得更高水平的收获。主要的实验结论和验证模拟结果的问题进行了讨论。(C)2002爱思唯尔科技有限公司版权所有。
We report on a series of computer simulation experiments regarding the management of a common resource. We were particularly interested in the effects of uncertainty and satisfaction on the harvesting behaviour of simulated agents. The experimental study of long-term dynamics of threatened resources can hardly be carried out using human subjects. We therefore experimented with simulated consumers, the so-called consumats, whose properties are derived from a comprehensive, multitheoretical model of consumer behaviour. A consumat is equipped with needs and abilities, and may engage in different cognitive processes, such as deliberation, social comparison, imitation, and repetition of previous behaviour. In a first simulation experiment we show as to how uncertainty may stimulate an imitation effect that promotes over-harvesting. In two subsequent series of experiments, we show that increased uncertainty results in an increased 'optimism' of consumats regarding future outcomes, an increased likelihood of imitative behaviour, and a lesser adaptation of harvesting behaviour during resource depletion. These 'process-effects' promote higher levels of harvesting from a collective resource. The main experimental conclusions and the issue of validating simulation results are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.