Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?
Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?
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评估气候变化对生物多样性的影响：低于 2°C 就足够了吗？
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-019-02420-x
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
R. Leemans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sarahi Nunez;E. Arets;R. Alkemade;C. Verwer;R. Leemans
如果气候变化以目前的速度继续下去，预计生物多样性将发生巨大变化。不利影响包括物种生境和组成的变化，从而改变生态系统的功能。我们通过对物种分布对气候变化的响应进行荟萃分析，评估了生物多样性预期变化的幅度。我们关注的是当地剩余物种的比例及其栖息地。我们总结了97项研究，并根据其结果计算了两个效应量指标，以量化生物多样性的变化。这些指标是剩余物种的分数（FRS）和剩余面积的分数（FRA）与每个物种的适宜气候。这两个指标都计算了与原始生物多样性状态的偏差，它们共同表明了生物多样性的完整性。我们发现，在全球平均气温上升1 ° C至2 °C之间，FRS和FRA均出现预期的逐渐下降，分别显著减少14%和35%。预计将对哺乳动物和植物产生强烈影响，FRS将减少19%。生物多样性对气候变化的反应在不同的分类群体和生物群落之间差异很大。对于某些分类群，温度升高超过3 °C，FRA强烈下降。虽然这些估计是保守的，因为我们假设物种无法分散或适应，我们得出的结论是，已经处于中等水平（即，1-2温度升高，预计原始生物多样性将显著减少。我们的研究支持将气候变化限制在1.5 °C以内的承诺，最好是更低，以保护生物多样性。
Large changes in biodiversity are expected to occur if climate change continues at its current pace. Adverse effects include changes in species habitats and compositions, and consequently changes in ecosystem functioning. We assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. We focused on the proportion of local remaining species and their habitats. We summarized 97 studies and calculated two effect-size metrics from their results to quantify changes in biodiversity. These metrics are the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable climate for each species. Both metrics calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and together they indicate biodiversity intactness. We found an expected gradual decrease in both FRS and FRA with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1 and 2 °C increase in global mean temperatures. Strong impacts are projected for both mammals and plants with FRS reductions of 19%. The climate-change response of biodiversity varies strongly among taxonomic groups and biomes. For some taxonomic groups the FRA declines strongly beyond 3 °C of temperature increase. Although these estimates are conservative, as we assume that species are unable to disperse or adapt, we conclude that already at moderate levels (i.e., 1–2 °C) of temperature increase a significant decrease of original biodiversity is projected. Our research supports the pledge to limit climate change to 1.5 °C and preferably lower to protect biodiversity.