Spatiotemporal effects of climate factors on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease: a case study using mixed geographically and temporally weighted regression models
Spatiotemporal effects of climate factors on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease: a case study using mixed geographically and temporally weighted regression models
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气候因素对儿童手足口病的时空影响：使用地理和时间混合加权回归模型的案例研究
DOI：
10.1080/13658816.2021.1882681
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Wala Du
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhimin Hong;Changlin Mei;Huhu Wang;Wala Du
手足口病是一种全球性传染病，严重威胁儿童健康。气候因素在手足口病的传播中扮演重要的角色。本文讨论了地理加权回归中的Bootstrap检验. (GWR)本文将文献推广到地理和时间加权回归（GTWR）模型，以识别同质解释变量和时空异质解释变量。然后利用所建立的混合GTWR模型研究了气候因子对内蒙古地区手足口病发病率的时空效应。结果表明，相对湿度的影响具有时空上的全球性，而气温、气压和风速的影响则具有时空上的变化。扩展的Bootstrap检验为模型选择提供了可靠的统计依据。本研究结果不仅可以深入了解气候对手足口病发病影响的时空变化特征，而且可以为不同季节采取县级预防控制措施提供一些有用的依据。
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease.severely threatening children’s health. It has been recognized that.climate factors play an important role in the transmission of HFMD. In.this paper, the bootstrap test in the geographically weighted regression.(GWR) literature is extended to geographically and temporally.weighted regression (GTWR) models for identifying homogeneous.explanatory variables and spatiotemporally heterogeneous ones. The.resulting mixed GTWR model is then used to investigate spatiotemporal.effect of climate factors on the HFMD incidence in Inner.Mongolia, China, a provincial autonomous region with extensive.area and different climatic conditions. The results demonstrate that.the effect of relative humidity is global over space and time, while.that of air temperature, air pressure and wind speed varies spatiotemporally..The extended bootstrap test provides a solid statistical.basis for model selection. The findings from the study may provide.not only a deep understanding of spatiotemporal variation characteristics.of the climatic effect on the HFMD incidence, but also some.useful evidences for taking measures of the disease prevention and.control at the county level in different seasons.