Monetary Policy Rules and the Great Inflation
Monetary Policy Rules and the Great Inflation
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货币政策规则与大通胀
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.299671
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Athanasios Orphanides
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Athanasios Orphanides
1970年代货币政策的性质是通过前瞻性的泰勒规则的透镜进行评估的，该规则是基于对政策决策时通货膨胀和失业前景的看法。证据表明，1970年代的政策基本上与一种系统的、积极的、前瞻性的方法没有区别，这种方法在理论和计量经济学政策评价研究中往往被认为是良好的政策建议。这表明了一种令人不快的可能性，即尽管使用了一种看似可取的政策方法，但20世纪70年代的政策错误还是发生了。尽管由此产生的积极政策可能看起来非常有希望，但事后看来，它们适得其反。
The nature of monetary policy during the 1970s is evaluated through the lens of a forward-looking Taylor rule based on perceptions regarding the outlook for inflation and unemployment at the time policy decisions were made. The evidence suggests that policy during the 1970s was essentially indistinguishable from a systematic, activist, forward-looking approach such as is often identified with good policy advice in theoretical and econometric policy evaluation research. This points to the unpleasant possibility that the policy errors of the 1970s occurred despite the use of a seemingly desirable policy approach. Though the resulting activist policies could have appeared highly promising, they proved, in retrospect, counterproductive.