Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era
Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era
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低通胀时代货币政策的三个教训
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.186013
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
John C. Williams
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Reifschneider;John C. Williams
名义利率的零下限限制了央行在经济低迷时期刺激经济的能力。我们使用FRB/US模型来量化约束对宏观经济稳定的影响，并探讨如何设计政策来最大限度地减少这些影响。在特别严重的收缩期间，单靠公开市场操作可能不足以恢复平衡;需要一些其他刺激措施。从这些罕见事件中抽象出来，如果政策遵循泰勒规则并以零通胀率为目标，那么产出的可变性会显著增加，但通胀不会。然而，一个简单的修改泰勒规则产生了显着减少的零界的不利影响。
The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on macroeconomic stabilization and to explore how policy can be designed to minimize these effects. During particularly severe contractions, open-market operations alone may be insufficient to restore equilibrium; some other stimulus is needed. Abstracting from such rare events, if policy follows the Taylor rule and targets a zero inflation rate, there is a significant increase in the variability of output but not inflation. However, a simple modification to the Taylor rule yields a dramatic reduction in the detrimental effects of the zero bound.