Evaluation of Compound Probabilities in Sequential Choice
Evaluation of Compound Probabilities in Sequential Choice
复制标题
顺序选择中复合概率的评估
作者：
John Cohen;E. Chesnick;D. Haran
成功的结果取决于个人在几个或多或少独立的阶段中的每个阶段做出正确的选择，这种情况经常发生。在旅行的不同阶段选择运输方式就是一个例子。类似的困境出现在职业、行政、政治和军事生活中，以及一般的通信网络中。几个选择的时间顺序并不总是一个关键因素。此外，整个情况可能具有随机特征，即正确选择的概率可能随阶段而变化。
SITUATIONS frequently occur in which a successful outcome depends on an individual making a correct choice at each of several more or less independent stages. The choice of mode of transport at various stages of a journey is one example. Comparable predicaments occur in professional, administrative, political and military life, and in communication networks generally. The temporal order of the several choices is not invariably a vital factor. Furthermore, the situation as a whole may have a stochastic character in that the probability of correct choice may vary from stage to stage.