Periodic and Chaotic Dynamics in Childhood Infections
Periodic and Chaotic Dynamics in Childhood Infections
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儿童感染的周期性和混沌动力学
DOI：
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发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. J. Graser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Schaffer;L. Olsen;G. L. Truty;S. Fulmer;D. J. Graser
大多数生物学家，当面对一个时间序列，假设动态的可能性是相当有限的。一个系统要么静止不动，假定处于平衡状态，要么以固定的周期振荡。他们可能会告诉你，其他任何东西都是噪音的证据--观测误差或来自外部的偶然扰动。根据这些标准，大多数生物系统，特别是在种群水平上，都是非常嘈杂的。因此，数学生物学非常重视随机模型以及旨在提取信号中“确定性”成分的统计技术，这并非偶然。
Most biologists, when confronted with a time series, assume that the dynamical possibilities are quite limited. Either a system sits still, presumably at equilibrium, or it may oscillate with a fixed period. Anything else, they will probably tell you, is evidence of noise — observational error or chance perturbations from without. By these criteria, most biological systems, especially at the population level, are extremely noisy. Hence, it is no accident that mathematical biology places a heavy emphasis on stochastic models as well as on statistical techniques designed to extract the “deterministic” component of the signal.