A THEORY OF FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS
A THEORY OF FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS
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DOI：
10.1029/93wr00961
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发表时间：
1993-12-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
KRZYSZTOFOWICZ, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
KRZYSZTOFOWICZ, R
当地洪水预警系统通常服务于位于源头地区的小社区，这些社区容易遭受山洪暴发或快速的河流洪水。这类洪水事件的预报具有提前时间短、不确定性大的特点。本文建立了一个由监视器、预报员和决策者三个功能组成的局部洪水预警系统的贝叶斯理论。该理论为以下方面提供了建模框架和数学概念：(1)根据不完全预测制定发布预警的最优决策规则，(2)统计评估系统性能，(3)计算系统的事前经济效益。
A local flood warning system typically serves a small community situated in a headwater area and exposed to flash floods or rapid riverine floods. Forecasts of such flood events are characterized by short lead times and large uncertainties, A Bayesian theory is formulated for a local flood warning system built of three functional components: monitor, forecaster, and decider. The theory offers a modeling framework and mathematical concepts necessary for (1) developing optimal decision rules for issuing warnings based on imperfect forecasts, (2) evaluating system performance statistically, and (3) computing the ex ante economic benefits from a system.