CMIP5 model analysis of future changes in ocean net primary production focusing on differences among individual oceans and models
CMIP5 model analysis of future changes in ocean net primary production focusing on differences among individual oceans and models
复制标题
CMIP5模型对海洋净初级生产力未来变化的分析，重点关注各个海洋和模型之间的差异
DOI：
10.1007/s10872-019-00513-w
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Oka Akira
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nakamura Yuki;Oka Akira
先前的模拟研究表明，全球初级生产力将在未来下降，因为全球变暖导致的分层将减少深海营养物质的供应。以前的研究主要强调营养限制在解释初级生产力变化时的重要性;然而，浮游植物的生长实际上是由温度，光照和营养限制决定的。此外，虽然初级生产的未来变化因地区而异，但人们还不清楚这些机制在各海洋之间有何不同。本研究的目的是定量评估的贡献，每个限制因素，解释未来的变化，在个别海洋初级生产力使用9耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）模型。首先，对于每个模型，我们计算温度，光照和营养限制，这些限制不能直接从CMIP 5输出数据中获得。接下来，我们不仅定量评估全球海洋初级生产力变化的主要驱动因素，而且还分别评估低纬度地区、北大西洋、北太平洋、北极和南大洋初级生产力变化的主要驱动因素。通过对初级生产力的限制因素的定量评价，我们发现，除了营养限制外，由于全球变暖，初级生产力的未来变化受到变暖引起的浮游植物生长增强和放牧引起的生物量减少的控制。此外，我们表明，未来的变化，初级生产力及其机制不同的各种海洋盆地。
Previous modeling studies have shown that global primary production will decrease in the future because stratification caused by global warming will reduce the supply of nutrients from the deep ocean. Previous studies have primarily emphasized the importance of nutrient limitation when explaining changes in primary production; however, phytoplankton growth is actually determined by temperature, light, and nutrient limitations. Moreover, although future changes in primary production differ depending on the area, it is not well understood how these mechanisms differ among oceans. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each limitation factor to explaining future changes in primary production in individual oceans using nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First, for each model, we calculate the temperature, light, and nutrient limitations, which are not directly available from CMIP5 output data. Next, we quantitatively evaluate the main drivers of changes in primary production not only for the global ocean, but also separately for low latitudes, the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, the Arctic, and the Southern Ocean. Via a quantitative evaluation of the limitation factors of primary production, we show that, in addition to nutrient limitation, future changes in primary production due to global warming are controlled by warming-induced enhancement of phytoplankton growth and decreasing biomass caused by enhanced grazing. Moreover, we show that future changes in primary production and its mechanisms differ among the various ocean basins.