Food and water insecurity as causes of social unrest: Evidence from geolocated Twitter data
Food and water insecurity as causes of social unrest: Evidence from geolocated Twitter data
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343320975091
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Benson, Thomas S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Koren, Ore;Bagozzi, Benjamin E.;Benson, Thomas S.
研究往往不能解释气候因素导致社会动荡的具体途径。一项挑战在于理解粮食不安全和水不安全（我们称之为“主食不安全”）的不同影响，同时考虑到它们的相互关联性质，特别是在高分辨率时空尺度上。为了解开这些动态，我们利用肯尼亚城市地区的地理位置推特数据，并部署有监督的机器学习方法，以英语和斯瓦希里语分别识别有关食品和水不安全的地理位置推文。然后，将这些数据汇总起来，为标准化网格单元创建粮食和水不安全的日常衡量标准，以检查感知到的粮食不安全如何缓和和/或加强感知到的水不安全对社会动荡的影响，反之亦然。我们的研究结果表明，食物和水的不安全各自的影响应该被解释为相互加强——迫使公民走上街头——而不是独立的。因此，那些关注气候变化对冲突影响的人应该努力共同考虑这两种形式的不安全及其相互影响。
Research often fails to account for the specific pathways by which climatic factors can cause social unrest. One challenge lies in understanding the distinct effects of food insecurity and water insecurity - which we term 'staple insecurities' - while accounting for their interrelated nature, especially at high-resolution spatio-temporal scales. To unpack these dynamics, we leverage geolocated Twitter data across urban areas in Kenya and deploy a supervised machine learning approach to separately identify geolocated tweets concerning food and water insecurity, in both English and Swahili. The data are then aggregated to create daily measures of food and water insecurity for standardized grid-cells to examine how perceived food insecurity moderates and/or reinforces perceived water insecurity's impacts on social unrest, and vice versa. Our findings suggest that food and water insecurities' respective effects should be interpreted as mutually reinforcing - in compelling citizens to take to the streets - rather than as independent. Those concerned with climate change's impact on conflict should hence endeavor to jointly account for both forms of insecurity, and their interactive effects.