The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19
The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0239251
复制
发表时间：
2020-09-15
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Todo, Yasuyuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Inoue, Hiroyasu;Todo, Yasuyuki
本研究量化了为防止COVID-19传播而可能封锁东京的经济影响。由于供需短缺，这种封锁的负面影响可能会通过供应链传播到其他地区。通过对日本近160万家企业的实际供应链运用基于代理人的模型，模拟了在东京都内，如果对市民的生存不重要的生产活动停止一定时间，东京都外的生产活动会发生什么情况。我们发现，如果东京被封锁一个月，对其他地区的间接影响将是对东京直接影响的两倍，导致日本总产量损失27万亿日元，相当于日本年度GDP的5.2%。虽然东京将关闭的生产占日本总产量的21%，但封锁将导致日本一个月后的每日产量减少86%。
This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country's annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month.