Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6
Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl086729
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发表时间：
2020-05
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
L. Roach;J. Dörr;C. Holmes;F. Massonnet;E. Blockley;D. Notz;T. Rackow;M. Raphael;S. O’Farrell;D. Bailey;C. Bitz
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作者：
L. Roach;J. Dörr;C. Holmes;F. Massonnet;E. Blockley;D. Notz;T. Rackow;M. Raphael;S. O’Farrell;D. Bailey;C. Bitz
长期以来，完全耦合的气候模型显示了卫星时代南极海冰的各种状态和演变。在这里，我们提出了一个高层次的评估南极海冰的40个模型，从耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 6）的最新阶段。许多模式捕捉海冰面积（SIA）的平均季节性周期的关键特征，但一些模拟难以置信的历史平均状态相比，卫星观测，导致大的模型间传播。夏季SIA在整个集合中始终偏低。与上一代模式（CMIP 5）相比，冬季和夏季SIA的模式间扩散有所减小，海冰密集度的区域分布有所改善。在1979-2018年期间，许多模型模拟了SIA的强烈负趋势，同时全球平均表面温度（GMST）的趋势强于观测结果。到21世纪末，模型预测了不同强迫情景下海冰的明显差异。
Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high‐level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979–2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger‐than‐observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios.