Are Meteorological Parameters Associated with Acute Respiratory Tract Infections?
Are Meteorological Parameters Associated with Acute Respiratory Tract Infections?
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DOI：
10.1086/605435
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发表时间：
2009-09-15
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Schmitt, Heinz-Josef
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
du Prel, Jean-Baptist;Puppe, Wolfram;Schmitt, Heinz-Josef
背景关于急性呼吸道感染（阿里斯）流行病发作的信息有助于制定预防策略（例如，高危婴儿针对呼吸道合胞病毒[RSV]的被动免疫）。为了更好地预测ARI病原体的季节性活动，我们调查了气候对ARIS.Methods住院的影响。从2001年到2006年，采用多重逆转录聚合酶链反应酶联免疫吸附试验对德国美因茨3044例阿里斯住院儿童的样本进行病原体检测。阿里斯的住院治疗与美因茨大学记录的气象参数相关。根据多重时间序列分析预测RSV感染的住院频率。甲型流感病毒、RSV和腺病毒与温度相关，鼻病毒与相对湿度相关。在包括季节和气候条件的时间序列模型中，RSV相关的住院是可预测的。某些ARI病原体的季节性可以用气象影响来解释。本文提出的模型是使用天气预报数据预测年度RSV流行的第一步。
Background. Information on the onset of epidemics of acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) is useful in timing preventive strategies (eg, the passive immunization of high-risk infants against respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]). Aiming at better predictions of the seasonal activity of ARI pathogens, we investigated the influence of climate on hospitalizations for ARIs.Methods. Samples obtained from 3044 children hospitalized with ARIs in Mainz, Germany, were tested for pathogens with a multiplex reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from 2001 through 2006. Hospitalizations for ARIs were correlated with meteorological parameters recorded at the University of Mainz. The frequency of hospitalization for RSV infection was predicted on the basis of multiple time series analysis.Results. Influenza A, RSV, and adenovirus were correlated with temperature and rhinovirus to relative humidity. In a time series model that included seasonal and climatic conditions, RSV-associated hospitalizations were predictable.Conclusions. Seasonality of certain ARI pathogens can be explained by meteorological influences. The model presented herein is a first step toward predicting annual RSV epidemics using weather forecast data.