Radiative forcing and climate impact resulting from SO2 injections based on a 200,000-year record of Plinian eruptions along the Central American Volcanic Arc
Radiative forcing and climate impact resulting from SO2 injections based on a 200,000-year record of Plinian eruptions along the Central American Volcanic Arc
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DOI：
10.1007/s00531-012-0814-z
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Krueger, K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Metzner, D.;Kutterolf, S.;Krueger, K.
我们首次提出了一种自洽的方法，将火山学野外数据与全球气候模型估计的区域爆炸性火山事件时间序列联系起来。利用岩石学方法，我们估算了过去20万年中发生在中美洲火山弧（CAVA）的36次探测到的普林尼火山喷发的SO2排放量。结合从过去的研究中收集的简单参数化关系，我们得出了全球最大火山气溶胶光学深度（AOD）和辐射强迫（RF）的估计，描述了每次喷发对到达地球表面的辐射的影响。同时，用全球气溶胶模式MAECHAM5-HAM模拟了所选CAVA喷发的AOD和RF时间序列，结果表明，平流层SO2注入与全球最大平均AOD之间存在线性关系，对于较小的火山喷发（= 5 Mt SO2），这种关系在定性和定量上与简单参数化近似中使用的关系一致。所选的CAVA喷发的潜在气候影响使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模型，通过(1)直接从全球气溶胶模型和(2)假设全球AOD指数衰减为12个月的简单参数化近似得到的RF时间序列来估计。结果表明，两种方法的最大AOD值和最大RF值基本一致，但它们的时间演化规律存在显著差异。因此，模拟的全球最高温度异常和温度响应的持续时间取决于使用的RF时间序列，在CAVA数据集的最大喷发中变化在2至3 K和60至90年之间。将基于CAVA数据集的火山喷发的重现时间与基于模式结果的气候影响的持续时间进行比较，我们得出结论，连续火山喷发不太可能造成累积影响。本文提出的方法和结果可用于计算硫排放、硫酸盐气溶胶或AOD数据对任何将硫注入热带平流层的火山喷发的近似火山强迫和潜在气候影响。
We present for the first time a self-consistent methodology connecting volcanological field data to global climate model estimates for a regional time series of explosive volcanic events. Using the petrologic method, we estimated SO2 emissions from 36 detected Plinian volcanic eruptions occurring at the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) during the past 200,000 years. Together with simple parametrized relationships collected from past studies, we derive estimates of global maximum volcanic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and radiative forcing (RF) describing the effect of each eruption on radiation reaching the Earth's surface. In parallel, AOD and RF time series for selected CAVA eruptions are simulated with the global aerosol model MAECHAM5-HAM, which shows a relationship between stratospheric SO2 injection and maximum global mean AOD that is linear for smaller volcanic eruptions (= 5 Mt SO2) and is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the relationship used in the simple parametrized approximation. Potential climate impacts of the selected CAVA eruptions are estimated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity by RF time series derived by (1) directly from the global aerosol model and (2) from the simple parametrized approximation assuming a 12-month exponential decay of global AOD. We find that while the maximum AOD and RF values are consistent between the two methods, their temporal evolutions are significantly different. As a result, simulated global maximum temperature anomalies and the duration of the temperature response depend on which RF time series is used, varying between 2 and 3 K and 60 and 90 years for the largest eruption of the CAVA dataset. Comparing the recurrence time of eruptions, based on the CAVA dataset, with the duration of climate impacts, based on the model results, we conclude that cumulative impacts due to successive eruptions are unlikely. The methodology and results presented here can be used to calculate approximate volcanic forcings and potential climate impacts from sulfur emissions, sulfate aerosol or AOD data for any eruption that injects sulfur into the tropical stratosphere.