Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review.
Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review.
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268817002692
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Conlan AJK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gaythorpe KAM;Trotter CL;Lopman B;Steele M;Conlan AJK
诺如病毒是全球病毒性胃肠炎的主要原因之一，并造成大量的发病率、死亡率和医疗费用。为了进一步了解诺如病毒的流行病学和控制，最近有很多兴趣通过数学模型来描述诺如病毒的传播动力学。在这项研究中，我们回顾了当前诺如病毒传播的建模方法。我们研究了用于估计这些模型的数据和方法，这些模型在不同的流行病学背景下在结构和参数上有所不同。许多现有的人群水平研究都集中在同一个病例通知数据集上，而来自疫情背景的模型具有高度特异性，难以推广。在这篇综述中，我们将探讨诺如病毒传播动力学描述的一致性和研究之间参数估计的稳健性。特别是，我们发现，有相当大的变异性，估计的关键参数，如基本繁殖数，这可能意味着，所需的努力，以控制诺如病毒在人口水平目前可能被低估。
Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.