A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology
A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-12-65
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发表时间：
2013-02-18
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Ermert, Volker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tompkins, Adrian M.;Ermert, Volker
背景：如果区域尺度的动态疟疾模型能够解释这些因素，则可以更好地理解气候变异性和人口相关影响在疟疾传播中的相对作用。方法：引入一个新的动态社区疟疾模型，该模型考虑了温度和降雨对寄生虫和媒介生命周期的影响，并对其进行了精细解析，以正确表示降雨和疟疾季节之间的延迟。降雨推动了地表水文学的简单但基于物理的表示。结果：昆虫学接种率和环子孢子蛋白率的模型模拟结果与西非广泛地区的现场研究数据吻合得很好，这些地区既包括季节性的地方病地区，也包括疫情边缘地区。对Bobo-Dioulasso的关注表明，除了疟疾的季节性外，该模型还能够反映农村和城市周边地区之间传播率的差异。东非的精细空间分辨率区域集成再现了疟疾地图集项目(MAP)中寄生虫率的空间分布，而西非和东非的集成表明，该模型粗略地再现了大量实地调查中观察到的寄生虫率随人口密度的下降，尽管它低估了高密度下的疟疾流行率，这可能是由于忽视了人口迁移。结论：一种新的考虑气候和人口密度的动态社区疟疾模型可用于模拟区域尺度上的疟疾传播。该模式结构促进了未来的发展，将移徙、免疫和干预纳入其中。
Background: The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors.Methods: A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates.Results: Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration.Conclusions: A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.