A latent class joint mode and departure time choice model for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
A latent class joint mode and departure time choice model for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
复制标题
大多伦多及汉密尔顿地区潜班拼班模式及出发时间选择模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
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通讯作者：
K. N. Habib
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作者：
Sanjana Hossain;Md Sami Hasnine;K. N. Habib
本文提出了一个封闭形式的潜在类模型（LCM）的联合模式和出发时间的选择。拟议的LCM提供了两种选择之间的复合替代模式。类特定的选择模型是两个相反的嵌套结构，其中每一个提供预期的最大效用反馈到相应的类成员资格模型。这种反馈允许响应于选择上下文的变化来切换类成员资格。利用大样本家庭出行调查数据集，对大多伦多和汉密尔顿地区（GTHA）的通勤方式和出行时间选择进行了实证研究。实证模型显示，在GTHA的通勤者的整体38%更有可能切换模式比出发时间，他们中的62%更有可能做相反的。实证模型还表明，平均主观价值的旅行时间节省（SVTTS）的通勤者在GTHA可以低至3美元，如果考虑一个单一的选择模式的出发时间选择嵌套在模式选择。如果假设相反的嵌套结构，它也可以高达67美元。然而，LCM估计GTHA的平均SVTTS约为27美元。通过使用估计模型的实证情景分析表明，在早上高峰期的汽车旅行时间增加50%不会动摇超过4%的通勤者从早上高峰期。
This paper presents a closed-form Latent Class Model (LCM) of joint mode and departure time choices. The proposed LCM offers compound substitution patterns between the two choices. The class-specific choice models are of two opposing nesting structures, each of which provides expected maximum utility feedback to the corresponding class membership model. Such feedback allows switching class membership in response to the changes in choice contexts. The model is used for an empirical investigation of commuting mode and departure time choices in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) by using a large sample household travel survey dataset. The empirical model reveals that overall 38% of the commuters in the GTHA are more likely to switch modes than departure times and 62% of them are more likely to do the reverse. The empirical model also reveals that the average Subjective Value of Travel Time Savings (SVTTS) of the commuters in the GTHA can be as low as 3 dollars if a single choice pattern of departure time choices nested within mode choices is considered. It can also be as high as 67 dollars if the opposite nesting structure is assumed. However, the LCM estimates the average SVTTS to be around 27 dollars in the GTHA. An empirical scenario analysis by using the estimated model indicates that a 50% increase in morning peak period car travel time does not sway more than 4% of commuters from the morning peak period.