Trajectories of rice-farming households in mainland Southeast Asia
Trajectories of rice-farming households in mainland Southeast Asia
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东南亚大陆稻农户的发展轨迹
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Newby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Cramb;J. Newby
东南亚大陆的五个国家正在经历与经济快速增长相关的重大农业和人口转型，这对低地水稻种植户的生计轨迹产生了重大影响。转型较早的国家，特别是泰国的经验，为老挝和柬埔寨等转型较晚的国家的可能轨迹提供了线索。收入的增长和贫困的减少导致饮食多样化，大米的重要性降低。生育率的大幅下降为农村家庭提供了“人口红利”，降低了抚养比，减缓了家庭数量的增长，减缓了农场规模的缩小。再加上农村-城市和跨境工资移徙的增加，这一人口趋势造成了农业劳动力的短缺，并增加了采用节省劳动力的创新，特别是机械化的动力。基础设施的改善和对更广泛的农产品需求的增长增加了非稻米作物和畜牧活动相对于稻米的收益。尽管农业在经济中的份额（特别是稻米部门）将继续下降，但压倒性的趋势不是农业衰退，而是农业和生计多样化水稻种植仍然是一个重要组成部分帮助许多稻米种植户摆脱贫困。
The five countries of mainland South-East Asia (MSEA) are undergoing the major agrarian and demographic transitions associated with rapid economic growth, with significant implications for the livelihood trajectories of rice-farming households in the lowlands. The experience of early-transforming countries, notably Thailand, provides clues to the possible trajectories of late transforming countries such as Laos and Cambodia. The growth in incomes and reduction in poverty has led to a diversification of diets, with rice taking on less significance. The sharp drop in fertility has provided a ‘demographic dividend’ to rural households, reducing the dependency ratio, slowing the growth in the number of households, and slowing the reduction in farm size. Combined with the rise in rural–urban and cross-border wage migration, this demographic trend has created a shortage of farm labour and increased the incentive for adoption of labour-saving innovations, notably mechanisation. Improvements in infrastructure and the growth in demand for a wider range of agricultural products have increased the returns to non-rice crop and livestock activities relative to rice. Although the share of agriculture in the economy (and of the rice sector in particular) will continue to fall, the overwhelming trajectory is not one of agricultural decline but of farm and livelihood diversification—with rice cultivation still an important component—helping to lift many rice-farming households out of poverty.