Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - Assessing trade-offs from reservoir operation and irrigation investments in Kenya's Tana Basin
Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - Assessing trade-offs from reservoir operation and irrigation investments in Kenya's Tana Basin
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-18-3259-2014
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Harou, J. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hurford, A. P.;Harou, J. J.
关键经济部门与环境之间对水的争夺意味着，就分配达成一致是具有挑战性的。管理肯尼亚塔纳河流域三大大坝的排放就是一个恰当的例子。塔纳河流域有440万居民，水电装机容量为567兆瓦，灌溉面积为3.3万公顷，湿地和森林具有生态重要性。这项研究首先寻求确定并帮助决策者将油藏管理战略形象化，从而在各部门之间实现最佳的(帕累托最优)利益分配。其次，它试图表明，随着拟议的新水稻、棉花和生物燃料灌溉项目的实施，可实现的利益之间的权衡如何发生变化。为了接近帕累托最优的权衡，我们将水资源管理模拟模型与多准则搜索算法联系起来。管理问题的决定或“杠杆”是三个主要大坝的水量相关的释放规则和对新灌溉计划的投资程度。这些决策针对八个目标进行了优化，包括供水和灌溉、能源生产和生态系统服务的维护。权衡图使决策者能够通过可视化其对不同受益者的影响来评估多水库规则集和灌溉投资选择。结果量化了拟议灌溉计划的经济收益如何与依赖它们的生态系统和当地生计的干扰进行权衡。事实证明，全面实施拟议的计划将付出高昂的环境和社会代价。“最佳情况”权衡分析的清晰度和全面性是解决“水-能源-粮食关系”资源安全问题相互依存和复杂的有利切入点。
Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing allocations is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks firstly to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly, it seeks to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of proposed new rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To approximate the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management simulation model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume-dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for eight objectives covering the provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Trade-off plots allow decision-makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets and irrigation investment options by visualising their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against the disturbance of ecosystems and local livelihoods that depend on them. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to come at a high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of "water-energy-food nexus" resource security issues.