Naturalised citizens as voters: behaviour and impact
Naturalised citizens as voters: behaviour and impact
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入籍公民作为选民：行为和影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Andreas M. Wüst
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andreas M. Wüst
合格选民的构成在不断变化——在德国和其他地方都是如此。在选举分析中，我们特别关注新的、第一次投票的选民和一般的年轻选民。我们认为年轻人是潮流的引领者，我们认为各方应该特别关注这个群体，以免失去与某个年龄段甚至整整一代人的联系。然而，那些通过入籍加入选民的人却很少受到关注。直到最近，由于2000年生效的新公民法，归化公民才被视为政党的潜在选民，甚至政党在移民和归化政策方面的政策偏好，据说都更多地受到移民和归化对选举的影响，而不是其他任何因素的影响关于德国入籍公民投票行为的数据很少，分析更少，尽管最近有一项贡献在一定程度上填补了这一空白，使用的是全国和地方数据在2001年10月至2002年9月期间，每月政治晴雨表调查中对入籍公民的全国筛选是早期分析的来源。根据这些数据，本文描述了这些入籍公民是谁，他们对政治表现出多大的兴趣，以及他们对政党和政治家的了解程度。此外，它还揭示了入籍公民参加选举的频率，他们投票给哪些政党，以及他们倾向于避开哪些政党。最后，本文估计了归化公民对2002年德国联邦议院选举结果的影响程度。
The composition of eligible voters is changing continuously – in Germany and elsewhere. In electoral analyses, we pay special attention to new, first-time voters and to young voters in general. We consider young people to be trendsetters and we think that parties should pay special attention to this group in order not to lose touch with an age cohort or even with a whole generation. Yet much less attention is paid to those people that join the electorate by naturalisation. Only recently – and as a result of the new citizenship law that took effect in 2000 – have naturalised citizens been perceived as potential party voters, and even the parties’ policy preferences in migration and naturalisation policies are said to be influenced more by the electoral impact of immigration and naturalisation than by any other factor.1 There are few data and even less analysis on the voting behaviour of naturalised citizens in Germany, although there has been a recent contribution that fills the gap to some extent, using nationwide and local data.2 The nationwide screening of naturalised citizens in the monthly Politbarometer surveys which have been the source for earlier analyses is replicated for the period from October 2001 to September 2002. Based on these data, this article describes who these naturalised citizens are, how much interest they show in politics, and how well they know parties and politicians. Further, it casts light on how frequently naturalised citizens participate in elections, which parties they vote for, and which ones they tend to avoid. Finally, the article makes an estimate as to the size of the impact made by naturalised citizens on the outcome of Germany's 2002 Bundestag election.