Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Zappa, Giuseppe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hawcroft, Matt;Walsh, Ella;Zappa, Giuseppe
对于北方热带外地区，中纬度风暴路径的变化是理解气候变暖影响的关键，但在当前气候模式中对其未来位置的预测受到很大的不确定性的影响。在这里，我们表明，尽管这种不确定性的大气环流对变暖的反应，通过分析风暴（或热带气旋）本身的行为，预测的最强烈的降水热带气旋的数量变化是大量的和一致的跨模型。特别是，我们发现，到世纪末，极端热带气旋（降水强度高于现今第99百分位数）的频率大幅增加。在欧洲和北美洲，除非温室气体排放量减少，否则到世纪末，这些强降水的热带气旋的数量预计将增加两倍以上。热带气旋行为的这种变化可能对社会产生重大影响，因为强烈的降水性热带气旋是这些地区许多大规模洪水事件和相关严重经济损失的原因。
For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions.