Downscaling Regional Circulation Model rainfall to gauge sites using recorrelation and circulation pattern dependent quantile–quantile transforms for quantifying climate change
Downscaling Regional Circulation Model rainfall to gauge sites using recorrelation and circulation pattern dependent quantile–quantile transforms for quantifying climate change
复制标题
使用重新相关和环流模式相关的分位数-分位数变换缩小区域环流模型降雨量以测量地点，以量化气候变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.09.014
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
A. Bárdossy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pegram;A. Bárdossy
本文提出了一种用于将区域环流模式(RCM)的降雨量估算缩减到测站网络的方法。我们从RCM产生了一组量规记录，这些记录(I)捕获了RCM模拟的变化，(Ii)具有经过适当转换后控制期的观测值的统计。这些统计量包括降雨的边缘分布、干湿序列和空间相关性结构。我们一直小心翼翼地消除RCM固有的偏见，同时保留其关于过去和可能的未来的信息。关键问题是该方法能否(在网络中)将信息从区域CM尺度传输到尺度尺度，以服务于对这种产品感到满意的规划、工程和农业从业者，而不是原始的区域尺度降水输出。我们利用大气环流模式(CPS)来为降尺度提供条件。我们的主要目标是解决以下与缩小尺度进程密切相关的问题：·尺度：在Gauge和RCM网格块尺度上，频率分布函数(Fdf)和互相关系数(CCCs)之间存在着相当大的差异；我们表明，RCM不能很好地再现降水分布以及空间相关性。·信息：RCM提供了一幅图片，或对“未来”的看法。问题是：我们如何着手将模型信号传输到量规尺度，同时消除偏差？·CPS：我们记录了量规尺度上缩减的估计的空间相关性，然后我们以CPS为条件修正了量规尺度上的fdf。·检查：我们设计了将RCM信号(fdf和ccs)传输到测量网络的方法，既在历史上的十年期间验证程序有效，更重要的是在第二个九年期间验证未使用数据的程序。在南非的五个地区实现了RCM降雨量测量站点的缩减尺度。这些雨量估计值可以直接用于设计和规划情景，甚至在气候变化情况下也是如此，使用这种方法。
This paper maps out a methodology developed for downscaling Regional Circulation Model (RCM) estimates of rainfall to networks of gauge sites. We have produced, from an RCM, a set of gauge records which (i) captures the changes modelled by the RCM and (ii) has the statistics of the observations in the control period after suitable transformation. These statistics include the marginal distributions, the wet/dry sequences and the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. We have been careful to eliminate the RCM’s inherent bias, yet preserve its message of the past and possible future. The key issue is the ability of the method to transfer information from the RCM scale to the gauge scale (in networks), to serve planning, engineering and agricultural practitioners who are comfortable with such a product, in contrast to the raw RCM precipitation output. We exploit atmospheric Circulation Patterns (CPs) to condition the downscaling. Our main goal is to address the following issues which are germane to the downscaling process:•Scale: there is a considerable difference between frequency distribution functions (fdfs) and cross correlation coefficients (cccs) at the gauge and RCM grid-block scale; we show that precipitation distributions, as well as spatial correlations, are not reproduced well by the RCMs.•Information: A picture, or a take on the ‘future’, is available from RCMs. The problem is: how do we go about transferring the model signal to the gauge scale, concomitantly removing the bias?•CPs: We recorrelate the spatial dependence of the downscaled estimates at the gauge scale then we correct the fdfs at the gauge scale conditioned on CPs.•Check: We devise methods of transferring the RCM signal (fdfs and cccs) to gauge networks, both in a historical ten year period for verifying that the procedure is effective and importantly in a second nine year period for validating the procedure on unused data.The downscaling of RCM rainfall to gauge sites was achieved in five regions in South Africa. These gauge rainfall estimates may be used directly in design and planning scenarios, even under Climate Change, using this methodology.
登录
查看更多内容
通过多边形上的多二次曲面整合降雨量
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
G. Pegram;G. Pegram
通讯作者：
G. Pegram
利用区域气候模型和水文环流模式降尺度降水
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Bárdossy;G. Pegram
通讯作者：
G. Pegram
使用水文变量对德国西南部的大气环流模式进行分类
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
A. Bárdossy
通讯作者：
A. Bárdossy
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Bardossy, Andres;Pegram, Geoffrey
通讯作者：
Pegram, Geoffrey
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Burger, G
通讯作者：
Burger, G